Irwin Stelzer
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TOSS a barrel of $139 oil into the economy and the ripples will swamp some of the boats trying to stay afloat in the current sea of economic troubles. And planes. Airlines are grounding their least fuel-efficient planes in an attempt to cut costs. So fewer budget-priced seats will be available to holidaymakers. Businessmen, too, are beginning to respond to the rising cost of company meetings by discovering the virtues of teleconferencing. Of course, home-bound consumers and desk-bound businessmen could drive, but petrol prices being what they are, that, too, is expensive.
All of which adds to the pressure on politicians to do something. Not for them Ronald Reagan’s famous plea to his officials: “Don’t just do something, stand there.” Some sensible new policies are badly needed but that is not on the cards, since the inclination of politicians is to do the opposite of what needs doing.
In their never-ending hunt for the quick fix, politicians in America and Britain want to ease the pain at the pumps by lowering petrol taxes. Never mind that prices would soon rise so that the net effect would be to lower the tax receipts of the US and UK Treasuries and increase those of the House of Saud, Hugo Chavez, Vladimir Putin and others not kindly disposed to western democracies. Even if prices did fall, the result would be to encourage greater use of petrol, and to discourage the development of alternatives to the use of oil-based products.
The hard fact is that there are no quick fixes, none that would have significant effect in, say, the next 10 years. Review the list: Even if nuclear power proves to be economically viable, which becomes less likely with each new estimate of its cost, new plants will not be on-line for 10 years. Coal is available in abundance in friendly nations, but coal is the bête noire of environmental groups, more precisely, one of their many bêtes noires. Over 100 of the 151 coal-fired plants in the planning stages in America last year have either been denied permits, quietly abandoned, or are being contested in the courts by environmentalists. Ethanol is in disrepute as the switch from food to fuel production is driving up food prices with disastrous consequences for poorer nations. The electric vehicle remains more a hope than a reality because batteries that are quick-charging and long-lasting are simply too expensive to compete with petrol-driven cars, and lower-cost batteries take a long time to recharge and don’t get you very far down the road. Significant supplies of newly discovered oil might put downward pressure on prices, but the producing countries won’t allow exploration and development, Congress has closed off fields in Alaska and offshore US, and new fields in Brazil and elsewhere will take years to develop. The costs of solar and wind generation are dropping, and the number of such projects is increasing. Solar enthusiasts are encouraged by the success of last week’s €1.8 billion (£1.4 billion) flotation by EDP Renovaveis, the solar arm of Energias de Portugal. Solar and wind, though, remain heavily dependent on on-again, off-again subsidy programmes and anyway are not significant substitutes for oil.
There’s more, but you get the idea - the cavalry is not just over the hill, it has yet to leave the fort. Prices might come down a bit from time to time, or even by a lot now and then, but so long as China, India and other countries continue growing, enriching their bicycle-riding, rickshaw-pulling masses, and subsidising their petrol consumption, pressures on supply will remain severe. Oil prices will remain higher than they were , barring an unlikely huge increase in the value of the dollar. At some point, perhaps a decade hence, alternatives to oil will make their appearance on a scale that might matter - unless the oil-producing nations respond to the threat to their dominance of energy markets by lowering prices.
So in the long-term future Americans will become more like Europeans - a description for which I am indebted to William Hogan of Harvard University’s John F Kennedy School of Government, a long-time observer of energy markets. We will continue the shift that has left dealers with lots crammed with unsold 4x4s, and unable to meet the demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles. We will set thermostats higher in summer and lower in winter. Insulation levels will increase, and lighting levels decrease. All because we have refused to tax petrol so as to get the money into the US Treasury rather than let producing nations snatch it for themselves.
In short, economics works - if consumers are left free to adjust to higher prices in ways they find most agreeable and efficient. However, politicians prefer “solutions” that not unsurprisingly confer more power on them and less on markets. One such now being debated in Congress is the cap-and-trade system for reducing carbon emissions. Carbon taxes would be more efficient, and allow individuals and businesses to decide how to adjust their energy use to cut emissions, but cap-and-trade lets politicians decide which lobbyists get permits for their clients, and which are so ungrateful that they do not. Best of all, politicians get to decide how to employ the trillions that will be paid for permits. This undercover raid on energy consumers and plan to enhance government power has the approval of both presidential candidates. John McCain and Barack Obama have drunk deeply of Al Gore’s global-warming potion while zooming around the country in private jets and racing to meetings in the large Chelsea tractors favoured by them and their entourages. No light carbon footprint for them.
Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute
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Its wrong that owners of 80% of the worlds oil reserves can hold the entire world,hurting the poorest most,to ransom by producing only 40% of the worlds output as OPEC has done 4 20 yrs. It is illegal cartel and reciprocal sanctions on all goods should be applied to OPEC until the cartel is broken.
Mike, Newmarket, UK
If America and all other nations pumped their war chest funds into Solar energy, there would be massive benefits on many fronts , starting with climate change, energy prices falling, none dependance on oil, and food prices falling. The quick fix is solar and the sun's energy is free with no OPEC .
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
Things will only ease-up when the oil-man in the white house (texan wannabe oil baron and saaudi investment agent W. Bush) is replaced by someone whose loyalties are with the conscious sensible (green but not radical) consumer.
As long as a Bush is in the white-house oil prices will keep climbing
Rui, Lisbon, Portugal
The US rank 3rd as oil producer. Americans pump about twice as much oil as Iran, or as much as the emirates+kuwait+irak+algeria, or as much as Canadá+Mexico+Venezuela+Brazil. The US produces a lot of oil.
Still, americans import about as much oil than Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, togher
Rui, Lisbon, Portugal
The FedReserve Policy since about 2004 of not supporting the dollar is a major contributor to the sharp rise in oil in terms of dollars. Second is the refusal of the U.S. Congress to permit exploring/drilling for oil and natural gas in most of the U.S.
Alan Sterling, Bethesda, USA
'The electric vehicle remains more a hope than a reality.'
nonsense. within the next two years four electric cars will be put on sale by japanese automakers all of which can 'supercharge' in 20 mins, have a range in excess of 150 kms and travel up to 90mph.
john winter, tokyo, japan
Well ... it's the American Way. Let the markets decide, and be reticent with government intervention that has a long-term policy objective.
Twenty to thirty years ago would have been a good time to become energy-efficient, but we chose to enjoy cheap energy. Now we have to do the same in less time
Golodh, London, UK
Funny how in pounds sterling terms oil is not that much more expensive than it was when the dollar was stronger and the oil price lower. Of course the British consumer should therefore be paying relatively less. We are being conned!
Christopher Wright, Newcastle,
The American suburbs have ceased to be just residential areas for commuters who commute to work in the cities (and for whom commuter rail makes sense). Many folks now live, work, and shop entirely in the suburbs. With that kind of sprawl and low density, mass transit cannot work.
Steve L., Lowell, MA, U.S.A.
Kevin, the pop. rise in 20C was no more artificial than in preceding centuries. Do you really believe that nasty capitalists engineered this to drive their factories and mines? Risible! If so, I suppose you would believe that its corollary, starvation, will be due to market forces. You socialists!
Steve, Birmingham,
GM's closed truck factories can build heavy hybrid SUV/toter trucks, with Plug In & Out, leasing current fork lift batteries, until the technology catches up. The bio capable diesel generator is also a multi mode portable generator, welder, for farm, work, and vacation homes/power outages.
Franklin Lomax, ALEXANDRIA, Virginia, USA
About time Americans and developed world stopped blaming China and Rickshaw Pullers of the third world for aspiring to be able to enjoy some basic facilities in life. Blame your sheer greed, "American Dream" Speculators and War Mongerers "Neocons" for price hike. Bofuels means no bread for millions
M Ezad, Southampton, UK
John in London:
"I 've heard there is a fair amount of water in the Pacific Ocean."
Maybe you know something I don't, but over here seawater isn't much good for irrigating crops.
Peter USA
peter, miami, usa
I've decided to cycle more & install a wood-burning stove in my sitting room, since wood is a renewable and stove technology is now so efficient that devices are carbon neutral. Local sources of wood would see me through the winter period for less than £50 a month. Stuff the Saudis! Bring it on!
devorgilla, Edinburgh, Scotland
Peter USA
I 've heard there is a fair amount of water in the Pacific Ocean.
John, LONDON, ENGLAND
A Sandia Labs study independently confirmed by - Jan Kreider and Peter Curtis - estimates that it takes 5 gal of water to produce a gallon of oil, 170 gallons of water per gallon of corn ethanol and 900 gallons of water for a gallon of bio-diesel. Where will the water come from?
peter, miami, usa
The compressed air car is here now and uses no petrol, diesel or other oil products. It is good for 160 miles a day at 68mph. NO info is coming through on it from the mass media other than the internet. Look up the compressed air car on Google. The future is NOW!
victor compton, Cherbourg, France
This piece is 'spot on'. There is no quick fix. No secret vast oil or coal reserves which will save the day. Slowly but surely the cheap fuel which has driven world growth for the last 125 years is being choked off. We all need to adjust our lifestyles the best we can.
Andrew, Paris,
I would like the oil to reach 10.000$/barrel. It would mean that cities would be free of pollution. A world full of electric bikes and cars... Nice dream.
On the other hand when the 15th/08 will function the large hadron collider, it will create a micro black hole and we all will die. So, why bother
Toni, Barcelona, Spain
I have a simple solution - I don't think we have enough holidays in the west. Double that might work quite well.
Or I suppose we can alls stop buying DVDs etc from China so that they don't have use so much energy making/shifting/transporting them...
stevie, berkshre,
Cellulosic ethanol is the only answer but the u s gov does not seem to want to invest. until oil reaches $200 they will start throughing money at it. so the way oil price is going it will be sometime this year. i have seen my first 4 / 4 graveyard just the other day and this is the next big thing.
michael mckeary, paisley, scotland
'will' is right; the market will invent the future. In ten years time, everyone will look back, and see the new equivalent of the internet; and without even fighting a world war over oil.
Howard, Sussex, UK
"No quick fixes" - anyone who is remotely aware of Peak Oil reality could have told you that decades ago.
Instead of concentrating the population of the USA, the opposite has happened. This is the biggest blunder of all as now passenger rail and public transport are of limited use.
Alfred, Ryde, UK
it's indeed that the industrial age is a function of the burning of fossil fuels and that one day all this will be reversed. when this happens it cannot be said, but the pains of the reversal are felt from time to time during economic rundowns.
dennis cini, zebbug, gozo, malta
The West has had since 1973 to prepare for the serious decline of oil, but nothing of any note has been achieved. Hopefully the high oil price will now galvanise the alternatives and enable the extraction of high cost, politically stable deposits and the use of clean coal.
Tony Gee, London,
The real villains are the NY and City commodity traders pushing prices up for speculative gain. Curb their manipulation and problem of this bubble spike in oil will be solved
Mac, Manchester, UK
Australia has vast reserves of natural gas, easily compressed for a car fuel, "CNG" ie., Compressed Natural Gas. CNG has only 25% of the pollution of petrol and converted at the home costs "10cents" a litre. Some Japanese cars have the compressor built in. Its all discouraged or forbidden by our Gov
Dennis, Sydney, Australia
This analysis is typical of 'establishment' economists - dismissing over 10yrs of calls for serious debate about 'Peak Oil'. True, the chance of a timely shift to alt. energy is wasted, but in his own field of Economics much can be done. Cap & Share recycles the rip-off oil price back to citizens.
Mike Hall, Cork, Ireland
The population boom of the twentieth century was artifically manufactured on oil and the oil derived green revolution. The markets will fix this by demand destruction of the population via mass STARVATION EVERYWHERE. Isn't it wonderful how the markets operate Irwin? But can we avoid extinction?
kevin, Lincoln, UK
Our economy built too many housing units at the lowest possible cost, with the lowest educated worker, resulting in the lowest possible quality. This isn't the fault of the illegal immigrant, but it is the fault of government and employers.We're very creative in making a 3rd world economy.
Jim Davis, Philadelphia, USA
Mr Stelzer,
Are you not aware that the United States needs a first class passenger rail system that would be attractive and affordable for inter city journeys of up to 500 miles. Why do you still not get it?
Brian Eastwood, Petersburg VA, USA
the more expensive oil gets, the more appealing it will become for companies to research alternatives, who knows what will power the world in the future, its like trying to write a 10 year plan the year before they invented the internet. Just let the market get on with inventing the future.
will, grimsby, uk
Public or Private transport will be the only alternative . The love affair with personal transport is over , when will we grasp this fact.
John
John Rutter, Ubon, Thailand
You need to divest yourself of this idea that coal is abundant, without qualification. This is old perceived wisdom. Globally, coal production may still be rising but that may not carry on much longer. Coal reserves figures aren't as rigorous as oil reserves. Production may peak with a decade or two
Tony Wedale, Auckland, New Zealand