David Smith
The man, the films, those blondes. Free DVD collection starting this Sunday
One of the most remarkable things about Britain’s economy in recent years has been its ability to keep growing. Through thick and thin, even at times when the battery threatened to give up entirely, the long expansion has continued.
Millions of children have never known anything other than rising national income. Today’s 16-year-olds were emerging blinking into the sunlight last time real gross domestic product showed a single quarterly fall.
Now, however, after 63 consecutive quarters of growth, is the party over? There have been close calls along the way — in the spring quarter of 2001 GDP rose a mere 0.1% in spite of a big public spending boost — but avoiding at least a quarter of falling GDP looks like an enormous challenge.
How much of a challenge has only just become clear. It started with the downward revision of first-quarter growth to 0.3%, half its rate in the final quarter of 2007 and a third of its rate a year earlier.
The quarterly numbers suggested a sharper slowdown than had been thought. They were followed by a series of very weak survey numbers and some high-profile corporate woe. With half the year gone, the gloom threatens to become all-enveloping. Will we even get to the end of the year with the growth record intact?
The question is, where will the growth come from? In a clutch of nasty numbers last week, some of the nastiest were the purchasing managers’ surveys.
The survey for manufacturing reported that, with continuing price pressures, the index recorded its largest monthly decline since January 2000 and was at its weakest since December 2001, with output, new orders and employment all declining.
You may say we have become used to gloom from Britain’s factories over the years. This year, though, it was supposed to be different, with the economy “rebalancing” towards Britain’s factories, helped by sterling’s fall against the euro.
Instead, manufacturing appears to be suffering from the credit crunch and soaring commodity prices along with the rest of the economy. The Engineering Employers’ Federation said the survey may have overstated the gloom. However, hopes that industry would keep the rest of the economy afloat are fading.
If manufacturing is disappointing, construction is looking like a demolition site. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for construction dropped to 38.8 last month. Last summer it was running at 64.8. The housebuilders’ intense pain is being reflected in the numbers.
Bad news comes in threes, and the third was the PMI for services, the biggest contributor to economic activity. We know financial services are in trouble — you certainly would not want to be a mortgage broker these days — and the sector’s woes are serious enough to push overall service activity down; to 47.1 from 49.8.
The service sector, of course, includes retailing and last week we had a 21-gun warning from Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of Marks & Spencer. We heard much the same from him in early January, since when consumer spending has surprised on the upside, including that spectacular, though disputed, 3.5% jump in retail sales in May. If you believe the official numbers, sales volume in May was up 8% on a year earlier. Even if you take them with a large pinch of salt, Rose’s retailing recession must have started after May.
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I remember reading a article a few years ago; when you rated Brown about 3rd from the top in the post war years. And then you was surprise, when many people disagreed with the prognosis.
Well the writing was on the wall with his tax and waste,and now we have reached the denouement: his incompetence
A Walton, Leicester, England
I am afraid that the UK has been running a bit of a Disneyland economy: Beautiful castles and big costumes but very little substance. The emphasis on consumers paying high prices on luxuries at first spurned an impressive growth but it is now a curse. We need manufacturing and high tech developments
Carl, London,
I am looking for the free worksheets for the french lessons that should be found at timesonline.co.uk/frenchlessons.
They don't appear to be there any more
Shouldn't these be available until the offer ends on the CDs ?
Valerie Knott, London , United Kingdom
I think the situation in the UK is a mirror of that in the USA. Both economies have maintained stability for ten years on the backs of trillions of borrowed dollars and pounds. But now, the value of the dollar and sterling are crashing, and the economy with it. And our children will suffer.
Jim Hart, Cary, NC, USA
For as long as the Government keeps following textbook economics we are forever doomed.
It is high time the UK Government repositioned itself in the corner of REALISM, not academic journals which have no bearing on real life. Build up the industry, specialise, the market rarely works!
chris Campbell, Glasgow, United Kingdom
"Let them eat cake." Marie-Antoinette (1755-93)
"Let them shop more carefully." Gordon Brown (2008)
Daniel Hussey, Colley Gate,
'Running on Empty'? We are £Trillions in debt.
As long as the government can keep borrowing we can keep overspending. Lot's of people do this for a long time. Bit nasty at the end though.
Brian Gilbert, HAMPTON, Middx
"this year...the economy rebalancing towards Britains factories"
How does that work then? You just magic up a load more factories, full of highly skilled staff? Turn around 20+ years of neglect of Britain's manufacturers in one year?
Too late, damage done. Overtaxed and skills gone.
MarkS, Leeds,
You dont get it do you David? Too low interest rates are what got us into this mess. Lower rates would be disaster. The economy must be purged of its malinvestments and interest rates should rise significantly to encourage more saving i.e. to enlarge the pool of real funding. That's economics David.
Chris, Bristol,
Greenspan and Co. threw lots of money at us, this way they diverted our attention from the real issues.
It's all about control, if you can't see tyhat your blind.
tom, Caernarfon, Wales
So even Roger Bootle now thinks we could be facing financial collapse! A collapse produced by central bankers deliberately creating an illusory economic boom by keeping interest rates too low for years. Some think they should be lowered again! Madness. A 30s style Depression is around the corner.
chris, brighton,
Forget the US - They're about 6 times if not more when it comes to size of economy yet we owe proportionally the same as they do. ou tell me who is going to suffer more in the ong run. The US has had and continue to have a manufacturing base even though some of the goods they make have taken a hit.
Glynn, Kingston,
Frank. Economics have always "been of age."
Humans on the other hand...
We have single Mom with daughter glued to American Idol and good luck deciding which one is the parent. We have brokers and salesmen stuffing cash into bubblehead's panties for lunch and good luck deciding who is smart.
David G., Maui, HI,
What we are seeing is a transfer of wealth from the old to the young. The New Labour government has been the worst best friend of the average British youngster. I cannot see a single resson for a young working British person to vote Labour.
Costas, Cyprus,
If you define ONE MILLION extra civil servants doing useless jobs as economic growth, then we have had a wonderful time. The very real pain will now occur as those civil servants are paid by the rest of Britain until they die, because their unfunded pension scheme requires ongoing taxpayer support.
Tony, Newark,
Maybe it's as well that I can't pick up David Smith's columns back in Feb/Mar when there was no question of believing the official figures and the governments growth and inflation figures could be taken as read. I seem to remember your estimates for growth were about 2-3%, David. Still believe that?
Steve, Birmingham,
A Sunday morning sport that has engaged me for several months is to see how the eternal optimism of David Smith would cope with bad news when it came so overwhelming that even he could not dismiss it.
His response is so say the bad situation is only just becoming apparent!!
Dandelo, Lesneven, France
Munch, munch. The sound of your in-house Pollyannas eating their words. If only they had listened to the BIS earlier. But of course no-one wanted to be told that the whole debt fuelled boom was unsustainable and also basically fraudulent. As Schumpeter once said: 'Will economics ever come of age.'
Frank, London, UK
I am mystified about this so-called economic 'growth'. In the city where I live, the real productive economy stagnated about eight or nine years ago and has been in decline for the past five years; all the while house prices kept rising until a year ago, due to easy credit availability.
Paul, Coventry,
We must be doing much better than Mr. Smith thinks, because we have ordered two new aircraft carriers which will cost three times more than the estimates,plus the planes to fly from them. at least we shall be able to protect the empire,and the trade routes for our exports.oops, isn't it July.1908
Eddy, Bury St.Edmundas,
We're at the end of a credit boom, the end trigger by lax lending to people and business with credit risk (sub prime, "liar loans", "buy to flip", private equity buyouts etc). The inflation seen now has the same root source, earlier low american rates. Short painful inflation will lead to deflation
houghty, preston,
Low American rates from 2000 onwards led to huge pools of capital being made available to developed world consumers/busisness. Subsequent consumer spending led to developing world manufacturing boom. This may have led to overcapacity in the developing world. Also have price bubbles in most assetts.
houghty, preston,