Gerard Baker: American view
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It was rather timely that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chose Sunday to announce that it is to begin aggressively pursuing the rumour-mongering on Wall Street that has apparently been so damaging to the health of otherwise completely sound financial institutions. There's nothing worse than people trying to manipulate prices in financial markets by talking.
The first place that the securities police might want to look is the offices of their colleagues at the US Treasury Department - because even as the SEC was announcing its bold new enforcement crackdown, the folks at Treasury were colluding with their friends at the Federal Reserve to pull off a remarkably clever bit of talk-based manipulation to rescue America's beleaguered mortgage lenders.
Despite the headlines about a massive bailout, the Government carefully committed no actual money on Sunday to the rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the ugly sisters in the complex and dysfunctional family of US finance. They simply promised to make available a lengthy line of credit should the institutions need it and pledged to inject capital into the troubled companies - again, crucially, “if necessary”.
This was a fine example of what is known in financial markets as “open-mouth operations”. The idea is that, by promising or threatening to do something dramatic, you will get the markets to do what you want them to do, without having actually to do anything yourself. Yet as anyone who has reared children will know, open-mouth operations don't always succeed. Sometimes they have to be backed up with action.
In Freddie and Fannie's case, it's too early to tell what might still be needed. Yesterday, Freddie had no difficulty tapping the capital markets for $3 billion (£1.5 billion) in funding. But it had no difficulty doing that last week, either. The question is whether the Government's measures will encourage financial institutions to come forward and help to recapitalise the two companies.
There don't seem to be any takers yet for that kind of financial heroism. That's because no amount of jawboning will disguise the basic problem that the massive losses in the American mortgage market are going to fall heavily on Fannie and Freddie's books, since they guarantee almost half the nation's loans. The existing shareholders' equity is hopelessly insufficient to meet those losses.
So a real, as opposed to a verbal, bailout still seems inevitable. How would this work? The assumption in financial markets is still that the United States would, in effect, take over the companies, with the existing shareholders losing all their stake. That was what was behind the falls in the companies' share prices last week. But is that correct? Given the high cost to taxpayers, shouldn't the Government try to share some of it with the creditors?
There is something appealing about the idea that creditors as well as shareholders should get punished for Freddie and Fannie's losses. Keeping a limit on the losses to the US taxpayer seems both politically and fiscally prudent. Investors poured money into the agencies' debt and allowed them to expand to dangerously bloated levels. Why shouldn't they also take some sort of haircut on their investments?
The big problem is that slapping creditors in the face may not be a good strategy for the US in the world right now. The biggest investors in Fannie and Freddie's debt were foreign central banks, who listened to all the talk of the “implicit government guarantee” and treated it as though it were as secure as Treasury bonds . If the US was to say “sorry, guys, we never said the debt was guaranteed, you'll have to take a loss”, the damage to the American Government's financial credibility in the world would be incalculable. Who knows what might happen to US interest rates and the dollar?
So, in the end, the taxpayer will have to cough up. But it's worth remembering that there's a sort of rough justice to it, after all.
Fannie and Freddie morphed over the years from being a benign source of support for the American housing market into nothing short of a racket - and a ruinously destabilising one, at that. Because of the implicit government guarantee of their debt, they were able to borrow cheaply on capital markets and massively expand their books. They paid their executives lavishly and grew into financial behemoths. Then they passed some of the benefit on to borrowers in the form of lower rates.
This all masked the simple fact that the Government was indirectly subsidising the US housing market through interest rates that were lower than they would otherwise have been, a subsidy that directly contributed to the housing bubble of the past ten years. This subsidy did not go to sub-prime borrowers, the sort of low-income, poor-credit Americans who might actually have needed it. Loans backed by Freddie and Fannie are, by definition, prime loans, to borrowers who have easy access to financial markets.
The bill for that massive subsidy is finally coming due. The shame is that it has taken such chaos and pain to get here.
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"six trillion dollars needed to rescue the two companies from where will it come from?"
Easy. Just add it to the $50 trillion or so the federal government already owes. A trillion here, a trillion there, soon you're talking real money...
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Poor person gets £50 a week, he is lazy, feckless and incompetent. Multi-billion pound corporation asks for billions in help from the tax payer, suddenly the 'free' marketeers go all interventionist.
MP, London, UK
If we accept that a 20% drop in the value of homes in the US and rising defaults, the real shortfall in assets over liabilities is likely to be $1 Trillion US Dollars. Not even the US Reserve can cope with this sort of hit. The depression arose from a similar loss of capital.
Stephen , Tamworth, Australia
Rest assured, good folks, that Freddie and Fannie's Boards of Directors and high ranking executives, after the taxpayer's money have saved there skins, will resume complaining about intolerable government meddling in private business and the Free Market as the best tool to solve everything on earth.
RONNIE, PARIS, FRANCE
IT'S A WONDERFUL LIFE
Up here in the garret we have tv and often especially at yuletide they show this really great old movie with James Stewart and Donna Reed.
Course everyone's seen it dozens of times - old time savings and loan threatened with a run, saved by Stewart and the bell. Bad guy Li....
charles stuart, nottingham, uk
....Freddie had no difficulty tapping the capital markets for $3 billion ...
Of course it got the money. The deal was done over the weekend. If it had not been, what would have happened in the market....TOTAL HELL!
The above deal tells us nothing about the future funding.
drumsfeld, London, UK
Martin, the liabilities of Fannie and Freddie total US$5.3 trillion. The line of credit of 2.25 bill is totally insignificant. Due to the housing downturn in the US, the value of their assets (MBS) has fallen significantly. Go figure please - the markets already have done.
Carl, Paphos, Cyprus
rescue with what?six trillion dollars needed to rescue the two companies from where will it come from? of course the tax payers.is it justifiable in these hard times that families are struggling to have a decent meal or pay their bills?why are we so generous with greedy companies from taxes we pay?
ebbi britt, valencia , spain
Pass the parcel. Ooh its hot. No I don't want it keep it going until the music stops.
Alan Heaton, Frankfurt, Germany
Brilliant strategy. Nationalise the losses, privatise the gains.
Can somebody explain to me why there isn't a revolution when big business shafts the taxpayer like this? How many yachts do those guys need?
Voland, Caen, France
Stanley that's a fine mess you have got me in to.
To think we trusted those people who got paid millions to pass the parcel. of bad debts around the world.
michael, watford,
Fannie and Freddie morphed over the years from being a benign source of support for the American housing market into nothing short of a racket ..
And EXACTLY the same could be said here about all the Building Societies that became Banks....
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
Ah Gerard,
How does it feel as one of the right's darlings, and a rooftop preacher of deregulation, to realize at the end of the day, you and you sort have to go cap in hand back to your big government, because of your own failure.
F.S.SUMMERS, N.Y,
Surely the 'damage to the dollar' is unaviodable (if we accept your premise that not bailing out Freddie and Fannie would have this result).
Bailing them out will inevitably destroy the value of the currency.
jeannie, Perugia,
Carl of Paphos,, no, agencies don't offer full faith and credit of the US Govt, but they do have a $2.25bio line of credit to the treasury so they aren't likely to go down. Dont forget, they may have massive liabilities, but they have plenty of assets and $25b in cash that redeems each month.
martin w, sydney, australia
I wish my business had a government guarantee. I can take as many risks as I like, take the huge profits on the way through and then when it goes wrong, they bail me out...Brilliant! How can I get one of these guarantees?
IPD, London,
I think you're missing one crucial point Gerard... A gov bailout does nothing other than create a moral hazard and generate even greater inflation... These 2 have been 'effectively' insolvent since 2006... Do you really think the socialisation of bad debt helps anyone apart from a few bankers on WSt
Beckett, London,
It sems it's perfectly OK to tell governments to keep their collective noses out of bussiness. ?
Untill it all turns sour, and someone has to pay the price for the lunacy,Then it's the poor taxpayer who is asked to foot the bill, ?Double standards
or sheer hypocracy. ???
Mr McAwber, Hartlepool,
My brokers offered me bonds in Freddie & Fannie, paying a higher yield than US Treasuries. I refused these on the basis these bonds did not carry the "Full Faith and Credit" backing of the US Government. Investors fully knew there was no US Government guarantee as stated in these bond prospectuses.
Carl, Paphos, Cyprus