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A three-way split over interest rates may be developing within the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), after it emerged that some members had discussed raising borrowing costs to stem inflation.
Minutes from the Bank's rate-setting meeting earlier this month revealed that MPC members talked about raising rates, arguing that rising inflation was enough “to consider whether an immediate rise in bank rate was warranted."
Analysts said the discussion signalled a warning shot from the more hawkish members of the committee about their intentions in the coming months.
The MPC’s Andrew Sentance and Tim Besley have the most hawkish voting record of the nine members of the rate-setting committee. Arch-dove, David Blanchflower, is likely to keep pushing for a rate cut, after emerging as the only member to vote for a reduction in June.
In the end, the MPC voted 8-1 in favour of keeping the interest rate at 5 per cent.
Philip Shaw, economist at Investec, said: "The hawks were sending a message, like a warning shot. It is quite possible they will vote for a rate rise next month, causing a three-way split."
But there was confusion over the tone of Mervyn King's letter to Chancellor Alistair Darling yesterday, which the Governor was forced to write when inflation spiked to 3.3 per cent, where Mr King warned that inflation will rise above 4 per cent later this year.
In what was perceived as a dovish letter, Mr King appeared to calm fears of an imminent rate rise when he said that if the bank rate was adjusted to bring inflation back to target within 12 months, the result would be "unnecessary volatility in output and employment."
Mr Shaw said: "As Governor, Mervyn King has a big sway over the voting, but his letter is supposed to represent the views of the committee, not just his own."
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: "There are signs that the MPC is becoming more divided on the future course for interest rates."
City analysts now expect rates to rise by a quarter point by November. The next rate decision will be announced on July 10.
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Sack theMPC.Inflation skyhigh&they have the nerve not to raise rates to protect stupid overborrowed homeowners making us all pay with weak sterling & expensive everything.When will the uk realize that housing is not an investment but an expense in exchange for acco.Cheap houses are good for ALL
Ash, London,
The difference between the 2.5% that they are selling us and the 8% or more that we are experiencing, compounded over 11 years, is even more astounding. We are talking about an overall inflation of 31% on their reckoning compared with a real inflation of 133%. That is 2 and a third times price rise.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
it makes me laugh when i read all the comments about interest rates,the fact is a young couple who have bought there first home have probable just started there family and may abort there first child before it is born as they now cannot afford to loose the second wage.-brown-darling do something,
alf, derby, england
Ian, raising the base rate only affects those with variable rate tracker mortgages. Most borrowers are on fixed rates of 5 years plus. Allowing food and fuel price inflation to spiral out of control affects everyone, thus Sterling needs to be strengthened back to the level it was a year ago asap!
Paul, Coventry,
Bring back the ration book, it's good for everyone. National service as well.
M Wilson, Bidache, france
Whether they like it or not, they will have to raise rates, inflation is spiralling out of control.... 4% that's a laugh, more like 8-9 % maybe more. You are reporting a 40% increase in fuel bills in Timesonline today, What will inflation be then?
Graham , Littlehampton,
Maybe we should link the official rate of inflation to the price of coal - that is how realistic it is.
jeremy, hassocks, sussex
King has buckled under political pressure to let inflation run away and not raise interest rates even though raising rates is exactly what the MPC should be doing. The MPC is losing whatever credibility it still holds.
chris, brighton,
If Gordon's economic miracle was functioning there would be no reason to not raise rates as the overall economic conditions would be able to bear it. A decade of lack of 'Prudence'. Gordon knows one thing - how to spend tax payers money to prop up his own mess and keep the seat thrown at him.
Paul, London, Canada
So, they want to raise the interest rate which means more punishment for the public at a time when the cost of living is causing ever-increasing hardship? Time for Labour to reduce the tax burden on petrol, gas and electricity, but this inept bunch won't as they don't give a fig for the rest of us.
Ian Dickson, Brighton, UK
Inflation upshot of fiat monetary system, booms and busts are controlled by govern policy, they are periodic and will always occur in this current system. The answer is the Gold Standard, is money was backed by gold or silver legal tender we would not be in these current mess.
Gurprit Singh, Gravesend, England
Judy, Liverpool. Yes, you are right of course. However, this is due to Gordon Brown's falsification of inflation figures with the CPI and far too low interest rates for far too long which in turn has caused purchasing power of pensions (and wages) to fall and house prices to rocket. Election now!!
Richard, Alicante, Spain
this is further evidence that the housing market is in deeper trouble than we thought
greg, manchester, lancs
Richard, Alicante, Spain
The other side of your argument will mean people losing their homes. Mortgages are so large now that even a small rate rise increases the burden disproportionately and people are already struggling with the increase in costs for everything else.
judy, Liverpool, England
Pardon my ignorance but aren't we always told that the raising of interest rates affects inflations after a year or so?
In which case - we had higher rates last year and they made now difference to the increase of inflation this year - so why bother?
Robert Rosenberg, London, Uk
That David Blanchflower, he must have a very big mortgage!
A Harris, Kettering, UK
"rising inflation was enough to consider whether an immediate rise in bank rate was warranted."
And that is - no doubt - ignoring the heinously serious matter of HOUSE PRICE inflation. That's right - house price INFLATION.
Joe, Manchester,
Retired people who need some interest to supplement the ridiculously low State Pension and the Private Pensions which have been decimated by Gordon Brown's £6 billion a year tax-grab need a higher interest rate to help with the rapidly escalating prices of food, energy and taxation.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
The government has been using fuel as a tax-cow for too long. Tax is something like 300% on petrol and diesel. Perhaps Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling should tighten THEIR belts as they are asking the rest of us to do and reduce this ridiculous tax.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
Hi Emma, I agree with Reg. Higher rates will not control inflation. Our world economy is built on Oil/gas, so as it gets harder to extract and more people need it, the price goes up and everything else with it. Ask the Saudhi's why they are importing coal from South Africa to generate electricity.
Matt, Leeds,
The only way to tackle this at a local level is to reduce the tax on fuel. High fuel costs create inflation. Add to that the toughening on lending criteria on credit cards and personal loans and we might just be able to slow the rises and create a more stable economy. The world is in recession.
Graham, London,
Inflation - a general increase in the level money.
Rising prices is merely a symptom not the cause, perhaps the govts of the world could switch of their printing press and stop robbing normal citizens of their buying power
Gavin Bartle, London, UK
Interest Rates should stay put as they are now. Too high interest rates will make the economy slow down and unemployment to rise. Europe has set theirs at 4%. The best rates are UK for all savers in Europe. A hike in interest rates will bring more trouble and instability in the UK.
Munro, London, UK
Not raising interest rates will have an impact on UK inflation due to the strength of sterling.
The pound has nearly lost 20% against the Euro since the BoE starting cutting rates.
A Harris, Kettering, UK
And the crux of Merv's letter was... if we wait until 12 months after food and oil stop going up then inflation will automatically adjust back to around 2%.
Captain Darling will no doubt be preparing his "party of low inflation" election speech already.
Simon, Leicester,
Raising interest rates will make no difference to inflation. Do you really think the Oil Producing nations will suddenly drop their oil prices because UK rates go up buy 0.25%.
Stuart London, Brighton,
Reg, London, you seem to miss this completely.
Dropping rates sends the Sterling into freefall, which in turns means higher prices for pretty much anything - food, clothing, electronics, oil.... all if that is inflation.
The only solution is high interest rates.
emma, london,
This inflation is not wage driven so how can the MPC justify base rate increases. The economy, driven over recent years by consumers using cheap money releasing equity to buy cars, electronics, furniture, home improvement etc. Its over unemployment is rising, negative growth and recession is here.
Nick G, London, UK
Inflation is going up - probably to 4%, but it's due to external stuff - oil, steel, world food demand etc. These things will all be happening irrispective of interest rate moves in either direction - so think outside the box and give us all a break Mervyn - reduce rates!
Paul, Leicester,
Blanchflower voted for a cut, lol. Maybe when official CPI reaches 10% he might vote for a 'hold'.
Paul, Coventry,
The MPC have run up the white flag. The CPI can be put to rest. Time to change the measure as the electorate have sussed it.
Brian Mc Caughey, Bury, Lancs
We will soon get an ABT Index Anything But The Truth.
Roger Parkes, Tunbridge Wells, England
Even if they raise rate to 15%, they will not bring inflation down. Cost of food and energy are going up due to WW factors, not UK ones. It is naive and self-centric to think so. We live in a global economy.
Reg
Reg, London, UK
i hope to release interest rate bank of england cut 0.25 on july peridly,for balance world economic.
yance, denpasar-bali, indonesia
The MPC have just ran up the white flag. The CPI as a measure awaits the last rites.
Brian Mc Caughey, Bury , Lancs
First there was RPI, then along came CPI when RPI became 'inconvenient'. Do we now have (Another) API, which can exclude anything that can possibly become 'inconvenient' in the future? If the goal posts are moved many more times, there won't be enough firm ground left to plant any sort of post.
Alan Gooch, Honiton,
The BoE is allowing 2 years to get inflation back under control just as tanker drivers get 13% pa?
Not tough is it?
If you were an oil sheik or asian sovreign fund would you put your cash in Sterling at current interest and inflation rates? No,
So the supply of credit will remain low.
N Reed, Truro, UK