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yes: "Every other country has these things and the skies haven't fallen in." He sees having just one supercasino, however, as the worst policy of all ­ the proposed 40 supercasinos having been reduced to eight and then to the single one slated for Manchester. "If they're a bad thing, we should have none. If they're a good thing, then to have eight would mean eight times as much public benefit." Psychologist and gambling expert Mark Griffiths, professor of gambling studies at Nottingham Trent University, argues that "most of this regeneration money will come from all those people that lose. There is not a lot of new money in here". But it's widely believed that "destination supercasinos" bring most economic benefit, with the least risk of encouraging problem gambling, rather than local casinos. The reason is

simple: gambling addiction is a problem of impulse. If there's a casino next to the pub on your way home, you're more likely to go in. Going to an out-of-town supercasino requires planning, whether that's travelling, babysitting or budgeting.

Gamcare, the charity for gambling addicts, say it simply doesn't know what impact the supercasino will have. "It's a great unknown," says a spokesman.

"But one of the reasons Manchester won is that it convincingly illustrated its desire to fulfil its social obligations." Griffiths says he'd be amazed if there wasn't an increase in problem gambling. All his research has shown that increasing the opportunities to gamble increases the number of gamblers and, thus, of problem gamblers.

In the light of stories such as the Cheshire financial adviser who stole £2.3 million from clients to spend on online gambling, the British Medical Association is warning that problem gambling needs to be treated as seriously as drug and alcohol abuse. Then there's the issue of unlimited jackpots, the so-called crack-cocaine of gambling. According to Griffiths, they foster a double or quits mentality ­ you've pumped hundreds of pounds into an unlimited jackpot machine, but just one more fiver could change your life. The psychologists call it "chasing behaviour", and Griffiths is

categorical: "Chasing is the number one predictor of whether someone will develop a gambling problem. Unlimited jackpot machines facilitate chasing behaviour, and low-income groups are more prone to problem gambling.

Gambling," he argues, "is an aggressive form of taxation." Griffiths believes that a 2000 estimate of between 275,000 and 350,000 problem gamblers in the UK was probably on the low side (he's working on a new survey of gambling prevalence). But just as there isn't only one type of gambling, there's more than one type of gambler. Some people will gamble on anything; others will use and abuse whatever form of gambling is to hand.

Most fruit machine players are only interested in fruit machines, but people who are into poker might also dabble in sports betting.

Griffiths sees the new casinos as being part of a broader change in attitudes to gambling over the past 15 years. "The real turning point was the lottery. People who do the lottery say they're not gamblers, but they are. It destigmatised gambling." The tendering process to build the Manchester supercasino is now due to begin. Kerzner International, the company behind Sun City in South Africa and the Atlantis resort in the Bahamas, helped prepare the city's successful bid and are thought to be the front-runners. Will it be the Las Vegas of the North? The short answer is no. Las Vegas-style gambling means size and spectacle and the British supercasino certainly won't be Las Vegas-size: the average casino in Vegas has 3,000-5,000 machines, compared with the 1,250 allowed here. As for spectacle, there are no known plans to recreate the Doge's Palace in Beswick. There's also the small matter of the climate.

Las Vegas is also unique in that it flourished as a destination resort because historically Nevada had the most lenient gambling laws in America.

That will not be the case in Manchester. Interestingly, today many casinos in Las Vegas now make more money from non-gambling activities, such as food, spas and shops, than from gambling. Joël Robuchon, Guy Savoy and Nobu all have high-end dining outposts in the city, along with every luxury brand. In 2004, revenue from business conventions exceeded that from gaming (by $6.5 billion compared to $6.1 billion). Another statistic: gambling in the UK is a £53 billion industry, of which casinos account for £4.23 billion; on the Las Vegas strip last year it was $6.69 billion (£3.4 billion).

Back at Manchester235, it is past midnight and the place is filling up. Men are clustered round the blackjack and poker tables, their girlfriends nursing cocktails, some of them looking bored. A lounge singer is giving Moon River his all, and the WAGs are leaving. They have toyed with their food, drunk their champagne, sauntered up and down the casino floor and stood around in an otherwise deserted disco. Maybe going to a casino will become as popular a night out as going to the pub. The casino owners and the government clearly hope so ­ you could say that they're both betting on it.

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