Some day it will happen. The United States will elect a female president. But
as Hillary Clinton and her feminist fans come to terms with the fact that it
probably won't be her, lots of American women are looking ahead: who will
make the history that Clinton didn't? The likely suspects may be surprising.
Even those most often mentioned, such as Kathleen Sebelius, the Governor of
Kansas, and Sarah Palin, her Alaska counterpart, are little known outside
their own states. But across the country there are senators and other state
officials ready to become name-brand politicians in four or eight years. Add
a business leader to the mix, and perhaps a Cabinet official, and you have a
serious selection of women who may be destined for the White House.
Katha Pollitt, a feminist essayist who has endorsed Senator Barack Obama, the
Illinois Democrat, acknowledges that the pool of possible female candidates
remains frustratingly small. But, she says: “The more people try to do
something, the more it seems possible for others to do it. I think that will
be a lasting legacy of Hillary Clinton's campaign.”
Indeed, as they evaluate the former First Lady's campaign, political analysts
of all stripes are impressed by her fundraising prowess and the millions of
votes that she received, leading them to conclude that her loss does not
signal that US voters are not ready to be ruled by a woman. They just didn't
want it to be this particular woman.
As Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster, puts it, at this point in the
country's political life, “if you have chemistry with the voters, your
biology doesn't matter”. And for the next crop of potential presidential
pioneers, a relatively low profile may turn out to be a good thing.
For better or worse, Clinton started her campaign as a well-known national
figure, a celebrity status established during the eight years that her
husband, Bill, was President. By contrast, “No one knew who Barack Obama was
five years ago,” Conway says, and the first-term Illinois senator used that
to his advantage, positioning himself as an outsider ready to break with the
kind of politics - and politicians - who had long run the country.
Similarly, Conway says, “For any woman running for president whose name is
not Hillary Clinton, there would be a whole freshness and newness.”
While Sebelius would be new to the national scene, she is anything but new to
politics. A Democrat, she grew up in Ohio, where her father was Governor,
and her husband is the son of a former member of Congress.
Party leaders took notice in 2002 when Kansans elected her Governor by a wide
margin - quite a feat for a Democrat in a heavily Republican state - and
Sebelius proceeded to convert several high-profile Republicans to her party.
“She is a very good politician,” says Burdett Loomis, a political science
professor at the University of Kansas who spent a year working in her
office. While her big set speeches sometimes fall flat, Sebelius does well
in small groups - even hostile ones. “She has grown up in an environment of
men,” Loomis adds, “and she is very good at being one of the boys.”
Sebelius, 60, has seen her star rise in recent months. She was featured on the
pages of Vogue - wearing de la Renta - and, as an Obama backer, is
now considered among the top contenders to be Obama's vice-presidential
running mate - a position that would help her to stake her claim for the top
job.
Palin, a Republican, also made the pages of Vogue, but she was shown
leaning against a seaplane - a must in her vast state. She told the magazine
that her favourite meal was moose stew, after a day of snowmobiling.
Elected in 2006 when she was just 42, Palin has travelled an unusual path to
politics. A former beauty queen and accomplished hunter who worked briefly
as a television news reporter, she recently gave birth to her fifth child, a
boy, who has Down's syndrome. She is a tough conservative, unafraid to take
on people in her own party, and has also been mentioned as a possible
candidate for vice-president this year, running alongside John McCain, the
Arizona senator.
There are, of course, other, better-known, women in US politics. Nancy Pelosi,
the Speaker of the House, is the first woman to hold that job, but her “San
Francisco liberal” tag makes a run for the White House unlikely. Condoleezza
Rice, President Bush's Secretary of State, was sometimes mentioned as a
presidential possibility in the past, but her central role in the Iraq war
makes that an unlikely scenario as well.
Conway, the Republican pollster, puts two sitting senators on her list: Kay
Bailey Hutchison of Texas and Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, who launched
her own brief campaign for the White House in 2000, four years after her
husband, Bob Dole, was the Republican candidate for president.
While both are older than Hillary Clinton, Conway suggests that their relative
age and experience could be seen as an asset if Obama wins this year and has
a difficult first term (Dole, however, must first reckon with what could be
a tough re-election fight in November).
Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive, is also among
Republicans sometimes mentioned as presidential material. Fiorina hasn't
held elected office but is playing a top role in McCain's campaign. Some
suspect that her business acumen could prompt him to choose her as his
running mate, which would boost her chances as a future contender.
On the Democratic side, Loomis points to Chris Gregoire, Governor of
Washington and former AttorneyGeneral in the state, who is seen as a tough
advocate for improving education and expanding healthcare.
Janet Napolitano, the Governor of Arizona, also has an impressive record. A
former prosecutor, she has won praise for handling the difficult politics of
immigration in a border state where that issue is particularly charged.
Jennifer Granholm, the Governor of Michigan, would be another tempting choice
- but she was born in Canada and, like Arnold Schwarzenegger, the
Austrian-born Governor of California, is prohibited by the Constitution from
becoming president.
While Chelsea Clinton has been a forceful advocate for her mother, America
seems keen to break from the ruling dynasties of the recent past - although
conjecture of this sort is loaded with pitfalls. Hillary Clinton could
choose to run again. And, like Obama just a few years ago, the strongest
future candidate may today be a true unknown, perhaps someone who rises in
stature with a job in the next president's administration.
Observers from across the political spectrum agree on one thing, though: while
there are lots of up-and-coming women in politics, surprisingkly few are
considered ready to enter the Oval Office. “The list is pretty short,” says
Loomis, the political science professor.
The “If not Hillary, then who?” worry helps to explain why some of Clinton's
biggest backers, especially older women, have pushed so hard for her to
remain in the race, even with the thinnest chance of prevailing.
“For the women of my generation who learnt to find and channel their
competitiveness, for the working women who never falter in the face of
pressure, for the younger women who still believe that women can do
anything, Hillary is a champion,” Ellen Malcolm - the founder of Emily's
List, which helps to elect Democratic women - wrote this month in The
Washington Post. “We'll cheer her on until the game is over. And we hope
that when the final whistle blows, we will have elected the first female
president and the best president our country has ever had.”
Clinton herself said as much late last month, when she explained why she was
still in a race that many thought she should have abandoned long ago. “I am
running for all those women in their nineties who have told me that they
were born before women could vote, and they want to live to see a woman in
the White House,” she said. “As the first female candidate in this position,
I believe I have a responsibility to finish this race.”
Instead, Americans are set to choose between Obama - who would be the
country's first black president - and McCain, who, at 72, would be the
oldest man elected to the office.
Pollitt, who is 58, does a rough calculation of how many more presidential
elections she will witness and the chances that one of them will send a
woman to the White House. “I think I could live to see it,” she says. “But
I'm not sure how old I'll be.”
Tomorrow, the world...
Other potential women leaders
Spain
Carme Chacón is 37 and, as of three weeks ago, on maternity leave. Before
that, however, she was the first woman to head Spain's macho Armed Forces,
and one of nine female Cabinet ministers sworn in by Prime Minister
Zapatero. To watch her calmly review the troops in April, a floaty top
wafting over her bump, was to witness the emergence of a new political
force. “It's an important image,” said one Spanish feminist, “because it
conveys normality.”
Italy
Just like us, Italy has a minister for equality who is a devout Roman
Catholic. But unlike Ruth Kelly, Mara Carfagna is a former topless model, TV
host and Miss Italy. When she entered Parliament in 2006, Silvio Berlusconi
joked about having to have sex with her first. Despite this questionable
pedigree, though, she seems one to watch. She has a law degree, and a
populist authoritarian streak that makes Italians go weak at the knees.
Pakistan
Fatima Bhutto, 26, is the niece of the late PM Benazir Bhutto and
granddaughter of the late PM and President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. She is
photogenic, clever and, most important of all in Pakistan, she is a Bhutto.
After the assassination of her aunt in 2007, her name was floated as a
potential head of the family party - a job that went to her cousin Bilawal.
Bhutto insists that she is content to remain a journalist. This may change.
Britain
Of the present crop, Jacqui Smith seems, perhaps surprisingly, to come out on
top. Her stint as Home Secretary may not have been glorious, but few are.
Other names often floated are Yvette Cooper and, on the Tory side, the
capable MP for Putney, Justine Greening. All this, however, assumes we still
have a UK in a decade. If not, will Wendy Alexander be Scotland's first PM?
HUGO RIFKIND
