Gráinne Gilmore, Economics Correspondent
Win a fitness package worth more than £3,000
The value of homes in Britain could slump by a further 20 per cent in the next two years as the number of buyers continues to fall, experts predicted yesterday.
Property values have already dropped by 10 per cent since prices peaked in August last year, wiping £20,000 off the price of an average home, figures from Halifax show.
But Howard Archer, of Global Insight, the economic consultancy, said prices would plummet by a further 20 per cent, or £40,000 on average, before the market begins to recover. “Continued falls in house prices are expected until the first half of 2010, taking the average house price to £140,104, down from £199,600 in August last year,” he said.
Vicky Redwood, of Capital Economics, presented an even bleaker outlook, forecasting that the housing market would not recover until well into 2011.
Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, said that if prices fall by 25 per cent in the next two years, more than two million - or one in six borrowers - would be in negative equity. Prices have been dragged down by a lack of mortgages available to prospective buyers, as lenders, who have struggled to secure funding in the wake of the credit crunch, demand bigger deposits.
Mortgage lending in June, traditionally one of the busiest periods, plummeted by 32 per cent compared with the same month last year, figures out yesterday from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) showed.
Michael Coogan, director-general of the CML, gave warning that the situation was unlikely to improve this year. “Activity during a traditionally busy time of year for mortgages has been muted by funding shortages and, more recently, dampened consumer demand. This picture will continue for the rest of this year,” he said.
This will come as a further blow to households struggling with spiralling food and energy prices. The average family is now nearly £470 a week worse off than this time last year, according to Asda, the supermarket.
Households had a monthly income of about £538 a week after paying tax during June, 3.2 per cent more than June last year, Asda's monthly income tracker shows. But this rise was more than offset by a 6.8 per cent jump in the cost of essential goods such as food, clothes, utility bills, housing and transport, with households spending around £407 a week on these items.
But there was a glimmer of hope for homeowners as Halifax, cut the rates on some of its home loans by up to 0.2percent for the second time in two weeks. This came after other major lenders, including Nationwide, Abbey and Lloyds TSB also cut their rates.
The rate on Halifax's two-year fixed-rate deal for borrowers with a 25 per cent deposit or equity stake in their property is now 6.47 per cent, down from 6.99 per cent last week. This will save a homeowner with a £200,000 loan more than £750 a year.
But despite this, hundreds of thousands of homeowners will still see their mortgage payments soar. Rates are far higher than they were before the credit crunch hit last autumn, despite recent falls in the base rate.
“Borrowers on tight budgets will have to plan ahead to manage higher mortgage payments than they have been used to,” Mr Coogan said. About 1.5 million homeowners will come to the end of fixed-term deals this year.
Three quarters of potential first-time buyers are abandoning plans to get on to the property ladder, a recent survey by Moneycorp, the foreign exchange group, suggested.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2006
£10,750
Great car insurance deals online
£Excellent+ executive benefits
Torres and Partners
London
£49,229 - £62,035 pro rata
Charity Commission
London/Liverpool/Taunton
Alstom Power
Europe
Six Figure
Rolls Royce
Midlands/Europe
From £89,950
Great Investment, River Views
Special Offers now available
New Year in the USA!
.
Cruise the Islands of Hawaii - Pride of America
List your property with two leading travel websites
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths
News International associated websites: Globrix | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
This is a much better time to buy than a year ago as at least you now know that you are not buying at the top of the market. Yes, prices may continue to drop but if you are looking at a five year timescale then you are more than likely to see growth on the property.
Jake, Bath, UK
Lenders will need to lower rates and increase their lending to stimulate the market as their security over people's property looks increasingly tenuous with property prices falling.
Abid, Leeds, UK
Lenders can do what they want, but with prodictions about values falling like this, I certainly won't be rushing to buy my first home in the next year.
Caroline, Norwich,
Sellers should just wait and not be pressured to drop the sales price. Why sell ? You lived there happy for some time, just stay! The problem is not the price or affordability, but that the lenders dont give out enough mortgages. Once this problem is rectified, then there will be more buyer again
Kevin, Alton,
Howard Hughes, London
"So many gloating socialists...".
Actually, its the property bulls who are the socialists - always demanding tax breaks, subsidies and bailouts of banks that lent irresponsibly.
AA, New York,
So many gloating socialists... No one ever got poor by owning lots of property. So things revert to 2004-5 levels?! So what - we were all happy then with our house values. And if they don't? Happy days. I'm still buying. Only a fool refuses the chance to grab opportunities in a downturn.
Howard Hughes, London,
Craig, Bow.
"Renting a room out means the mortgage is being paid at almost the same rate I was paying rent and yet in my own property"
So, you are paying interest to the bank instead of rent to a landlord. You have to put up with a lodger. And it's not yours until paid for. Well done
Alex, Salisbury, UK
As an expat sitting on a lot of cash, I hope the market goes into freefall. I plan to buy when the market hits rock bottom.
The moral of this story is don't buy what you can't afford. Being greedy can be forgiven; being impatient cannot.
Quentin, Shanghai,
My hunch is: hold-your-horses until at least June '09 then take stock. And watch the stock market - when it starts to recover that's the time to start thinking of getting back in the housing market because that will mean people are feeling better about the future - and optimism is contagious.
Bertie Becker, London,
Craig,
As the crunch takes it's toll the level of work available to european migrants subsides. As the work dries up,so does their ability to send money home to family. They now are returning home and their properties are becoming vacant meaning theres plenty of stock out there = lower rents
Bruce, London,
Live now pay later has stood the test of time. Curious isn't it , all these 25 -30 Banking wiz kids assumed business was just sitting in front of a computer screen and pressing numbers. Thank God for Bill Gates who invented Microsoft and ensured the current generation would end up brainless.
Johny , Rennes, France
The actual average (mean and median) for house sales in a Leeds area has remained fairly constant since Jan07. However since Feb 08 the number of houses sold has reduced around 80%. Sellers will soon get desperate.
FTBuyers can still buy now but only a fool would pay asking price.
Steve, Leeds,
Opening the EU has brought hundreds of thousands into London for work, these numbers aren't dropping and they need somewhere to live.
Craig, Bow,
There will always be a market in London; with rental rates rising I'm buying. I couldn't afford to buy 6 months ago, now I can. Renting a room out means the mortgage is being paid at almost the same rate I was paying rent and yet in my own property! I'm buying a home, not an investment.
Craig, Bow,
I agree with Mike's comments re market and Tony. The governement, banks and too many powerful companies who have a vested interest in promoting high property values continually spin better than actual results on property prices. This in turn makes us get into debt, work harder, pay more tax.
vere, Camberley, UK
Maybe I am not reading correctly but asking prices were I live are now 15% down inside 6 months and there are still no buyers. I see 40% before buyers come back and I feel sorry for recent buyers with little equity or those that might need to remortgage. I think Tony left on cue!
Mike, UK,
"Households had a monthly income of about £538 a week" is one of my all-time Favourite Facts from an Economics Correspondent. Especially after being told that "The average family is now nearly £470 a week worse off than this time last year". Oh yes, facts is facts.
Gordon, London,
A 20% reduction in house prices is not nearly enough to tempt me back into the market. As a former estate agent I will wait until I see house prices bear some relation to earnings before buying again.
Lawrence, London, UK
Any first time buyer buying now will only be throwing his money away or entering into severe negative equity in next 2-3 years. The UK property boom is over. Now we will see the equivalent slump. By all measures property is at least 50% overvalued in the UK. Dont listen to self interest groups
Michael, Bishops Stortford,
a drop is always followed by a rise - only higher than before.
look at the charts for your area and property type on upmystreet.co.uk
2009 may turn out to be a surprise - mark my words!
lyn, norwich, uk
Having factored in a 20% fall in value, the rental yield on my BTL is looking pretty good. This tells me, with rising rents for good quality properties, that my capital is safe in the medium term, if not the short term. I don't intend to fall victim to an over correction, which is sure to happen.
Jock, Leeds, UK
The term 'recovery' is relative, what does it mean really? House prices stop dropping, stabilise & remain the same for years? They go up with inflation but no more? one sure thing, the days of sky high prices are gone. I hope no one is holding their breath for a return to another boom bubble.
Brian Roberts , Plymouth, Devon
This correction is far more rapid than last time because people are far better informed about prices because of the internet. The media continually predict doom and gloom that is tending to make the situation worse than it need be.They are also to blame for the preceding rapid rise by feeding greed.
john, milton keynes,
Susan, what ever you do don't buy now. It'll take at least another six months for the penny to drop in the more affluent areas but it surely will. Next year will see huge drops in prices - all the 'insiders' know this. I sold twelve months ago because I saw all this coming, just look at the graphs!
george, aylesbury,
I have seen a large house near me priced at £950000.in dec 07. But now it is up for 750000. So the high end is falling, but when they take the averge price figures, it only shows a 20% and the overall price of the average house in uk? so lots of room to control figures. And you can not sell!
oliver, colchester,
I say put up interest rates which will curb inflation, prop up the falling pound and speed up the inevitable fall in unrealistic house prices. Who knows by 2010 it could all be over with prices down to the 50% mark, allowing the economy to expand all over again. Short sharp shock
Bruce, London,
The housing price correction is going to be more severe than most realise, with credit being controlled by banks and questions being asked, evidence required and large deposits needed. The loan / income ratio is returning to more sensible levels and banks know prices will become affordable.
chris, christchurch, dorset
Why is this bad news? Those that bought could obviously afford to do so. It's only retirees and investors who need to sell now. Please don't buy now and fund somebody else's retirement - you'll be lucky to afford to retire yourself. Check nethouseprices and see how much profit is being demanded.
Richard, Guildford, Surrey
A year ago RICS said that house prices were about to rise by 40% in 5 years.I thought they were living on a different planet as they appear to be clueless regarding forcasting house prices.HBOS arn't much better either.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Unless you are buying with 50% reduction now, wait for better times. Nothing will induce me to buy, when I know that in two years I can get it for half price.
Julia, London
Julia Hough, Sarasota, United States
Prices in the South east of England have hold the same during the 10% fall of the last 6 months. Prices are going up again this month. I am not sure if I should buy now or wait bit more.
Susan, London,
Now oil is falling, swap rates are coming down, mortgage rates are reducing, the mood on banks is more positive: watch it all reverse - UK growth will dip but the rebound of property is already built in.
Andy G, London, UK
the current financial situation has been on the cards for at least two years and i think that the reason some people now find that they are in trouble is because of this present goverment and there spin doctors. anyone with a basic understanding of maths should have seen this coming .
steve, surrey, uk
20% off - you're having a laugh.. More like 45 - 50% off and prices won't be back to 2006/7 prices for another 10 years.. Great news for most people. Who actually benefits from high house prices ??? Only a very few.
Patricia, Teddington, England
Rising unemployment will cause more house repossessions. Job cuts in the public sector are also likely as company profits fall and less tax is payable. Interest rate hikes due to inflation will occur soon and food and energy bills keep rising. House prices will drop at least 40 per cent more.
John, London, UK
In a declining housing market Nu Labour's response to our bankrupt economy is to borrow more to support the housing market by helping the 1st time buyer. Encouraging poor people to buy a depreciating asset & lead to future negative equity & unaffordable mortgages is crazy & will = more & longer pain
Tony, LONDON, UK
The more worrying issue is that Labour's new service based economy was built on a flow of money borrowed from abroad. That flow is slowing by the day and will reverse. Is the entire economy a house of cards? House prices may just be a hint of things to come.
John, London,
'This will come as a further blow to households struggling with spiralling food and energy prices'
How can buying a much cheaper house be a blow to people short of money????
Seems like fantastic news: Cheaper houses to buy = more money in peoples pockets.
Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
In early 2007 the IMF said property in the UK was 30% more than could be explained by economic factors; but that was when the economy was booming.
Now credit has completely dried up, and stagflation is just starting, that figure will be well below the mark.
JB, Seef, Bahrain
House prices are going to fall at their most rapid rate ever. There are many still in denial but the truth is property was as much as 50% overvalued.
The financial instruments that gave us cheap credit have failed and are now gone. Prices will plummet simply as no one can afford overvalued prices.
Gavin, London,
A year ago prices were forecast to rise, 6 months ago prices were forecast to hold, now prices are forecast to fall '20% in 2 years'. So what will the forecast be 6 months from now: 20% in 2009 alone? This correction appears to be more rapid than last time because prices have further to fall.
Paul, Coventry,