“We can’t know how bad it will get...."

We do and have for some time on Houseprice.Co.Uk. For example ABN Amro = 50% (about). And now we have some later converts such as Anatole Kaletsky (30% this year taking prices back to about 2003 levels).

Alistair, 7.3 (5?) % refers to interest rates.

Austin Tassletine, South West, UK

NO! is yet another example of career politicians ineptitude! Perhaps it may be beneficial to suggest a week's work experience in the private sector?! Ok, really, lets be honest.. can anyone see any self respecting employer... er well..

stuve, london, uk

Ahhh, super. Read the second-to-last bullet point? 'Assisting first time buyers.' I just dont understand, why were they not assisitng first time buyers in the good times? Because.....first time buyers are the only support that this market has at the moment...

Steve, London,

Agree with Richard of London. 50% fall? No way. Good houses in good areas with good schools and amenities will always be in demand - we are a property owning nation and i can't see it changing.

phil, harrogate,

So house prices are going to fall this year. I could have told you that early on in the year after looking at the price reductions in the house adverts in the local paper.
Let's have some real news please

Chris, Birmingham,

Are there really poor benighted fools who believe house prices will fall 50%, can they really exist?

richard, London,

I am not sure what makes me more angry - the governments continued commitment to laden us with more debt or the pathetic infantile behavior of their ministers and their ongoing gaffs.
I am a member of the labour party but will not be renewing my membership this year.

roger, tunbridge wells, UK

The figures are in line with the concensus of various "experts" that has already been reported in the newspapers . You can blame the government for many things but not house prices - the banks and the press are more to blame.

phil, harrogate,

What a fascinating collection of comments. And what an alarming insight they provide.
Not one correspondent has assumed that there is any basis of trust in the competence, honesty or motivation of this government. Not one.

Tony Ericson, Warwick, UK

As a lawyer, I would expect to be sacked if I did anything as stupid as this woman, showing confindential information publicly like that.

It goes to show it's true that in Britain, the people who are noether particualrly smart nor popular go into politics. Gordon Brown is another case in point.

Cameron, london,

and the government gives first time buyers the go ahead...how intelligent. they will be drowning in negative equity so fast it will make their head spin and that 7.3% figure on repossessions will be nostalgic history.

Alex, London, England

If you did the sums last year the only conclusion that you could draw was that house prices were going to fall by at least 10% in 2008.It wasn't rocket science.

stephen hulton, eure, france

The 7.3% figure is the rise in repossessions in the first quarter of 2008.

James, London,

Are the price of building materials going to drop?. I don't think so. Therefore if house prices drop builders won't build new houses and there will be more of a shortage and before you know it up go the house prices again.

Gareth Williams, Powys,

A fall of 5 to 10% only? Not enough. Prices must to fall at least 50% and on top of that we must have the return on the market those old and roten houses that are not worth anything.

Fabio C, London, UK

So what the government are saying to FTBs is: save 20k for a deposit of 10% on a 200k house, buy it and then watch as the 20 grand disappears.
That 10% figure is just for this year and by their admission could be worse.
Buy now before it is too late? I don't think so.

Bob, Esher, Surrey

"On the people's side"

That is a code for: let's inflate our way out of this mess and reduce the purchasing power of the people's wages while at the same time bailing out the banks and keeping up the illusion of prosperity until the next elections. There, even Teflon Tony can't pull that off.

anthony, london, england

I would like to hear from the 1% of estate agents that think house prices are still going up!

Nathan, London,

I do get this feeling that this has been done on purpose, Sympathy vote maybe?

Jon, Swindon, UK

This government is surely in the kind of downward spiral to disaster that only Laurel and Hardy could portray.

It is like watching, in slow motion, the calamities that lead to the extinction of the dinosaurs.

Ian Parker, Wigan,

Blair's crowning glory in the history books will be the choice of his exit date. It is one of the very few things he got damn right. Everything else was pure spin. He bequeathed Brown Armageddon. Only God can help Britain now out of this unmitigated disaster in all respects.

Anthony Felice, San Gwann, Malta

if the government lowered taxes it would mean that all the 13 year old mums and people that can't be bothered to get a job would have to earn their own way.
surely posh britiain can't go that way. i mean imagine a prison with no air con, sky digital and playstations for the inmates.

Pete, London,

It wasn't a gaffe. She quite deliberately carried it so that it could be photographed, because she wants us believe that the Government believes houses will fall 10%. That will reassure us that things aren't too bad. Actually they know that houses will fall 50%.As, if you were honest, you know too.

eric campbell, harrogate, uk

I think this was done on purpose knowing digital cameras would pick it up. Reading - it looks like a piece of spin and hardly new information for top level presentation. Either it is spin or the contents were lifted from the daily papers recently to make the author seem authorative?

Dave, St Albans., Herts

What kind of professional carries a Top Secret document in front of the Press without a briefcase or suitable document cover? More of this should happen and then the public would actually know what was going on ....although is there anything surprising in the report that we haven't heard already?

KGA, Frankfurt, Germany

Bruce,

I work in the public sector. I hardly think that 2.3% in an economy where the true rate of inflation is 8% or higher is "overinflated." It's worse if your a cop in England or Wales where over inflation amounted to a cut.

Who's really getting the money?

James, Glasgow,

Was flint really unaware of those people with zoom lens SLR cameras ? Stupid or a part of a wrecking stratagy before the Tories take over at the next election ?

roger, london,

I'm feeling positively nostalgic for the unity and competence of the Major government.

Ann Sheridan, Clapham, UK

Does anyone else think the whole things a stunt, plant blame, not us, were on your side, doing all we can, etc.

Simon Mason, London,

The wheels have finally fallen off Gordon's so called miracle economy which seemed to consist of squeezing every last drop of money out of the hard working classes and delivering it on a plate to layabouts via tax credits and public sector workers via over inflated pay settlements.

Bruce Mcaaw, Grantham,

Tony, Stockport - "Did they expect this unsustainable bubble to carry on forever?" Who said anything about forever? Just long enough that the crash doesn't come "on my watch". Blair got out just in time.

Nick, West Devon,

Oh the beauty of modern day megapixel digital photography!

Richard , Jersey, Channel Islands,

We are repeatedly told that the underlying features are sound.
What are they?

Mike, Winchester,

Lenny, Coventry, asks the obvious question.

The most alarming bit in Caroline's paper's content, though, was the inclusion of the mantra, which ever since 1929, as every reader of Galbraith, will recognise as the kiss of death:

"The fundamentals of the economy are sound." We're doomed!

tony peterson, kendal,

this is a VERY simple concept. if the government lowered taxation, people would have more take home pay and more savings, then there would be no need for 100% mortgages and the cost of living in this coutnry wouldn't be so incredibly unaffordable...plain and simple.

Alex, london, england

Is there anyone left who are predicting house prices going up?

Justin, Nr Lincoln, UK

Only 10%?

Darn.

M. R., Stockport,

Socialists have become the enemies of the people. After their performance over the last decade, the eternal enemies. At this rate, they will be relieved the next time their opinion poll ratings are as good as only 26 percent adrift.

Chris Gillibrand, Brussels , Belgium

"on people's side"? Which people? House owners, buy-to-let, first time buyers or industry?

So much for rule by deception.

Lenny, Coventry,

' But it is vital that we show that at this time of uncertainty we show that we are on peoples side ' .
Given that the last 3 words were also underlined , I think this sentence entirely sums up the shower that is Nulab .

Benzo, Nr Chelmsford,

Why are the Government so worried by falling house prices? The prices need to fall, houses have become too expensive in recent years. Did they expect this unsustainable bubble to carry on forever?

Tony, Stockport,

At last - some honesty from this Government and actually telling it like it is. Maybe they should have started doing so 11 years ago.

Bry Barnes, Somerset, Uk

Why is it a "problem" when house prices go down, and not a problem when they go up at utterly absurd rates as they have done this last decade? It is pathetic. House prices today result in those starting out signing their entire lives to debt slavery in order to "afford" a place to live! Madness.

Paula, Barnstaple, Devon

OK so the document was not intended for the public. That doesn't make it 'Top Secret'. There's no surprises in the contents - in fact it would be surprising if the cabinet weren't discussing the effect of house price falls on the home building programme.

A Clarke, London,

"on people's side" . Surely not by encouraging people to borrow many multiples of their income and discouraging people from saving?

Steve, London,

It hardly says that this is confidential, but these are the figures the government should be telling us so we are prepared. I am interested to know what the 7.3% in the top right says after it though.

Alistair Kipling, Birmingham,