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The mobile phone network may replace the copper wire as the principal method by which people connect to the internet in as little as two years, broadband experts predict.
Increased sales of laptops - which can be connected to the internet via the owner's mobile phone connection - the widespread roll out of high-speed mobile networks and the falling price of connecting to such networks have all contributed to the uptake of mobile broadband, they said.
One person in ten now regularly accesses the internet on a computer via a mobile phone connection, despite such services only having been on sale for less than a year, according to research released this week by You Gov. Of those, up to a third now connect their computers to the internet solely through the mobile network.
"This trend is as significant as the shift from home to mobile phones that took place in the mid Nineties," a spokesman for Top 10 Broadband, a price comparison site, said. "We predict that by 2010, mobile broadband will overtake home broadband as the default way to access the internet in the UK." A similar claim was made by Broadband Expert, another comparison site.
Mobile broadband takes advantage of high-speed 3G phone networks that can transfer data at speeds approaching those achieved by a fixed-line home internet connection. The customer plugs a small device known as a dongle into a laptop's USB port, and can then surf the web at speeds of about 1.5 megabits per second (Mbps).
Most home broadband packages advertising speeds of "up to 8Mbps" achieve speeds of 2.7Mbps, according to a study by Which? last year.
The You Gov poll found that mobile broadband was most popular with students and other "highly mobile" people who did not want to be tied to fixed-line contracts in homes where they did not spend all their time. But as prices came down and network capacity grew, the service would emerge as a genuine alternative to the fixed-line internet for a greater number of people, mobile industry experts said.
Prices have come down by 50 per cent from late last year, with a typical mobile broadband package now costing £15 a month - roughly on par with a fixed-line deal.
Ian Fogg, an analyst at Jupiter Research, said that uptake was principally driven by the increased popularity of laptop computers, which were now owned by 40 per cent of people who use the internet, and could be used to get online when a person was on the move.
"If you're out with your laptop, the only option at the moment for say uploading your photos to a social networking site is either waiting til you get home, which is annoying, or finding a wi-fi hotspot, which can take time and costs money," he said. "Mobile broadband, by comparison, has come right down in price, and quality of high speed HSDPA - or 3.5G - networks has improved dramatically."
Mr Fogg added, however, that the fixed-line internet was still preferable for people who wanted to stream a lot of video or share large files over the internet, and was also better suited to supporting large numbers of people on the network at any one time.
3, one of the first UK operators to introduce mobile broadband, offers 18-month broadband contracts which include 3GB of content - the equivalent of six to ten hours of video on the BBC iPlayer - for £15 a month. For existing 3 customers, the package costs £7.50 a month. Tiscali's lowest fixed-line "broadband and talk" package - which includes line rental - costs £9.99 per month.
"For most people who want to use the internet to browse the web, send pictures, use social networking sites and things like instant messaging, mobile broadband can be a genuine alternative to fixed line," a 3 spokesman said.
Tiscali, a traditional internet service provider which stands to be affected by a large-scale shift to mobile broadband, declined to comment.
Richard Osborne, commercial director at Broadband Expert, said that there were still problems with 3G coverage, but these were being ironed out. "In central London, it's fine, but if you're on the train, there's going to be deadspots," he said. "It's only going to improve."
According to a study by Broadband Expert in March, the average speed offered by mobile broadband providers was 1.46Mbps, about half that of standard home broadband.
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I used to have a Vodafone dongle advertised as 7.2Mbps max. Speed never reached 7.2, downloads/uploads were as slow as an old 28-whatever modem, frequently cut out before download finished. All unfinished useless downloads added to my monthly usage. Cost: £30 a month. Not worth it.
Oz, London,
Obviously these 'experts' have got someone else paying their internet bill. Unless the prices come down to something more reasonable and the terms of use policies allow you to download more, I doubt there will be much change.
George Lucas, Hitchin,
Coverage is still lacking in the London area, even though it's better than elsewhere. I have an hour long train commute each way, and I have 3G signal for a bit less than half the journey--and intermittently.
Even with that shortcoming, a 3G modem is definitely worth having
Alan Peery, London, UK
Not in 2 years time. Probably in next 5 years when the LTE or the so called 4G comes in with latency < 5 msec for small packets,100Mbps speeds.
If not just imagine using a 3G or HSDPA network for VoIP or Games or even for video watching. it really crawls big time.
srikrishna komatineni, Singapore,
Oh yeah try playing games on that kind of connection. Not fun.
Rorke, Bristol, UK
Hopefully the early adopters will go to to wifi and give us guys on copper better contention ratios and higher bandwidths, a win win maybe.
Tom Taylor-Duxbury, Ludlow, UK
I have used a 3G HSDPA network for the last 3 years.
1. The latency is terrible(bad for games)
2. The average DL speeds ~150kbs(In a busy area)
3. They are run my cell phone companies(experts at screwing you once you exceed your limit)
4. Traffic shaping benefits biz customers, small guy looses
Paul, Durban,
Its not so much the technology that is bad, its the operators who run the 3G networks.
1. Terrible latency(bad for games)
2. Poor DL speeds ~150kbs (busy area)
3. Traffic shaping to suit big biz users, small guy looses.
4. Billing nightmares
Paul, Durban,
'The experts say' - don't hold your breath. Experts in what I wonder? They clearly need a reality check
Bill Q, Derby,
Dave, Truro, UK-If you are 5 miles from your nearest exchange the chances of you getting a decent 3g signal (0.4 Mbits/s) let alone a strong HSDPA (upto 7.2 Mbit/s currently) are extremely slim.
I'm 15 miles from the nearest 3g mast, and live 3 miles from the nearest village but still get 2meg DSL.
Andrew, Norwich, UK
I have recently started using 3 mobile broadband and cannot believe how good the service provided is, everything they promised unlike other providers they have delivered. The only drawback is that the phone batteries only last about 2 hours 30 mins.
Gino Guarino, Swansea, UK
ive had vodafone mobile for 3 months and apart from its a little slower than BT its been faultless - Bt cost me £35 for line rental and internet - now I pay £15 in total yippee!
chris, leeds,
Because, Gary, we don't all live in Hertfordshire. Here in rural Cornwall, 6 miles from the exchange, we are lucky to get half a meg most of the time. If there is coverage, rural folk will go for this before those close to exchanges, or with cable.
Dave, Truro, UK
I'm sticking with fixed line internet access for the forseeable future. The draconian download limits on mobile broadband deals are a turn off for me.
If I buy a film or tv show from itunes then that would be almost half of my allocation used if I had 3g internet.
Jordan, York, UK
My home ADSL connection with BT runs at around 0.3-0.5Mbit/s, which makes doing anything online a right pain. Mobile broadband could be a looker: Being able to connect at faster rates, AND browse on the move certainly seems like a good deal. Just waiting for data limits to rise as 3Gig is too low.
John N, Windsor, UK
What a load of hogwash.
3G networks are slow, have bandwidth restrictions and have huge capacity issues. Wireless will never be a replacement technology for fixed line cables. Reliability of fixed wireless is unmatched compared to wireless products.
John, Dublin, Ireland
I don't think so. It's more likely that consumers will wise up to being short changed by bandwidth restricting ISPs and select providers whose service is more in line with their advertised bandwidth.
Why settle for comparatively slow 3G when you can have at least 5Mbps of genuine bandwidth?
Gary F, Hertfordshire, UK