AN ASTEROID large enough to wipe out a continent could collide with the Earth in 11 years, astronomers said yesterday.
There is no reason, however, to prepare for Armageddon just yet. The chances of an impact are remote, at just one in 909,000, and the odds of oblivion will lengthen still further as more details of the object’s orbit become known.
The asteroid, known as 2003 QQ47, was discovered on August 24 by the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Programme in Socorro, New Mexico. Early calculations of its orbit show that it will pass very close to the Earth on March 21, 2014, and that there is at least a theoretical possibility of a collision.
Astronomers have given it a value of one on the Torino scale, which grades the potential risk to the Earth from zero, signifying no danger, to ten, meaning a catastrophic collision of the sort that wiped out the dinosaurs. A rating of one judges an impact to be extremely unlikely, but not impossible.
During the first week in which scientists have known of 2003 QQ47’s existence, however, they have been able to observe it only 51 times. This has provided far too little data to estimate its orbit with great accuracy, and astronomers expect to rule out any prospect of a collision as they watch it more closely.
Alan Fitzsimmons of Queen’s University Belfast, an adviser to the Near Earth Object Information Centre in Leicester, said: “I would say there is no cause for concern at all. The near-Earth object will be observable from Earth for the next two months, and astronomers will continue to track it over this period.
“In all probability, within the next month we will know its future orbit with an accuracy which will mean we will be able to rule out any impact. Previously this year we have had several asteroids, which have had much higher probabilities of colliding with the Earth in the next 100 years, and they have almost all been ruled out.”
If 2003 QQ47, which is three quarters of a mile across and has an estimated mass of 2,600 million tonnes, were to strike the Earth, its effects would be devastating. The rock is a tenth of the size of the one that landed at Chicxulub in Mexico 65 million years ago, causing the climatic disaster that is thought to have led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, but it would still release enough energy to lay waste to a continent.
It would strike the Earth at a speed of 75,000mph, exploding with a force equivalent to 350,000 megatonnes of TNT, about eight million times greater than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
Although this asteroid is very unlikely to hit the Earth, it is certain that one will do so at some point in the future. Asteroids up to 100m across strike approximately once every 50 to 1,000 years and can cause severe local devastation, as is thought to have happened at Tunguska in Siberia in 1908.
Larger objects, capable of causing regional devastation, strike every 1,000 to 100,000 years, and ones more than a mile across, which can cause “nuclear winter” effects, hit still less frequently.
Sara Russell, a meteorite researcher at the Natural History Museum in London, said she was not worried that 2003 QQ47 would be a danger. “The odds are very, very low,” she said. “We have to keep some kind of perspective.”
Kevin Yates, project manager for the Leicester information centre, said: “As additional observations are made over the coming months, and the uncertainties decrease, asteroid 2003 QQ47 is likely to drop down the Torino scale. We will continue to monitor the latest results of observations and publish regular updates on our website.”
Lembit Opik, the Liberal Democrat MP who campaigns for international action to protect the world from asteroids, said: “The stakes are so high that we should not prepare by crossing our fingers and closing our eyes. How much more does the Government need to see? It is time for us to wake up and smell the coffee.”
William Hill, the bookmaker, said that it would be happy to take bets at odds of 909,000 to one that the asteroid would hit. A company spokesman said: “On the principle that if the asteroid does wipe out life on Earth, we probably won’t have to worry about paying out to winning customers, we will happily take all such bets.”
Odds on an even more likely ending
The odds of 909,000 to 1 that 2003 QQ47 will hit Earth will be sobering news for millions of National Lottery fans, who gamble on odds of 14 million to 1 (Sam Coates writes).
They are more than 15 times more likely to be obliterated by the asteroid than to win the jackpot.
Acutuarial calculations, which can predict the likelihood of almost every event in life and death, often make uncomfortable reading for gamblers.
A recent compilation of actuarial statistics from around the world has revealed that the chances of being:
- Killed by lightning is 1 in 10 million
- Killed in a road accident is 1 in 8,000
- Killed as a pedestrian in the United States is 50,000 to 1
- Drowned in a bath in the US is 807,000 to 1
- Killed in a bus crash is 13 million to 1
- Fatally injured by a dog bite is 10.5 million to 1
- Injured in a game of tennis, waterskiing or surfboarding is 1 in 500
