In its almost 100-year history the ANC has seen off many splits but this one may be different.

When Mosiuoa “Terror” Lekota announced: “Today we are serving divorce papers”, every member of the ANC knew it meant a split. Mr Lekota wanted to make it clear to ANC members and supporters that the other side, led by Jacob Zuma, was the guilty party in the break-up of a party that has been known for its iron discipline.

It was also the first salvo in the battle over who represents the “real” ANC and the fight for the hearts and minds of voters. Much will depend on persuading ANC members that the new bloc is the true inheritor of the party’s legacy, and how successfully it argues that the Zuma camp is despoiling the ANC’s tradition of inclusiveness, accountability and tolerance.

The Zuma camp is divided over how to respond — between those who want Mr Zuma to be become President at all costs, and those who only wanted Thabo Mbeki out and desire a unity leader.

In the past ANC splinter groups have centred on one disgruntled popular individual or a provincial branch feeling hard done by. Although last month’s vengeful sacking of Mr Mbeki as President was the trigger for this latest move, Mr Mbeki himself is not the prime mover; in fact, he has kept his distance. This break has a much larger appeal, including the largest proportion of leading figures leaving in the party’s history.

The way Mr Zuma has responded to party dissatisfaction after Mr Mbeki’s exit, sidelining or purging even mild Mbeki supporters, is likely to swell the ranks of the new group. In previous splits the ANC has been able to rally around a unifying figure; while Mr Zuma has cult status among some supporters, others oppose him with equal vehemence.

If Mr Zuma, who still faces 12 corruption charges, is the ANC’s presidential candidate in next year’s general elections, the new party’s chances increase. It is highly unlikely that it would win but it could reduce significantly the ANC’s 66 per cent vote from 2004.

Life will not be easy. The Zuma faction will have the state’s resources to fight back. Moreover, the nation’s democratic culture — already suspect, as seen in attacks by Zuma supporters on the judiciary, media and other institutions in an attempt to get his corruption charges squashed — would face a big test. Successful parties in South Africa have deep roots in villages, townships and cities, providing anything from welfare for members to shows of solidarity at funerals. Opposition parties have not done this, which is one reason why they have been unable to stop the ANC juggernaut.

A new party will have much going for it. It would be suicidal to have Mr Mbeki as its face but it can still hope to capitalise on the 40 per cent support he got at the ANC conference last December when he was ousted by Mr Zuma. There is a general public dissatisfaction that goes beyond Mr Mbeki. This week even Desmond Tutu said that he would not vote for the ANC. The new bloc will be branded opportunists, defenders of Mr Mbeki, business and the middle class. It has to appeal to a wider audience — and represent the poor better. If it forces the ANC to become more democratic and improve its record in government, then even if it does poorly in the elections it will serve a purpose.

W. M. Gumede is author of Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC.

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